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从“博收益”走向“压舱石”？ 黄金理财产品净值回暖却遇发行“冰点”_我的网站

A |     　　文章来源：中国经营报　　中经记者 张漫游 北京报道　　金价反弹正在修复一度被市场冷落的“固收+黄金”理财产品。《中国经营报》记者从普益标准了解到一组数据，6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%。　　国际金价自8月初低点4041美元/盎司启动反弹，月内一度涨超10%重返4600美元/盎司上方。

B |     

    A concept photo of currencies and financial market Illustration: VCG
The designation of Deutsche Bank, a key and influential bank in Europe, to serve as the yuan-clearing bank will greatly facilitate and expand the use of the yuan in the EU market, providing more impetus to broader China-EU economic and trade ties, a Chinese analyst said on Tuesday.
The People's Bank of China (PBC), the central bank, announced on Monday that it had decided to authorize Deutsche Bank to serve as the yuan-clearing bank in Frankfurt, Germany, based on a memorandum of understanding with the Deutsche Bundesbank.
The move came as China-EU trade and economic ties continue to deepen and bilateral trade continues to expand, despite recent restrictions imposed by the European Commission.
In a statement sent to the Global Times on Monday, Deutsche Bank said that following the appointment by the PBC, it will facilitate direct end-to-end processing, clearing and settlement services for cross-border yuan transactions for European financial institutions and businesses, acting as a local bridge to China's payment systems. 
Deutsche Bank, a global systemically important bank as well as the world's largest euro-clearing bank, said that it is the first foreign bank in Europe to receive this designation.
"Securing yuan-clearing capability in Europe reinforces our role as a trusted global clearing partner and our long-standing support for yuan internationalization. It strengthens China-Europe financial connectivity and enhances our ability to support clients' cross-border trade and investment flows with greater choice and flexibility," Alexander von zur Muehlen, CEO of Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East & Africa and Germany at Deutsche Bank, said in the statement.
Xi Junyang, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Tuesday that while a number of Chinese banks are already performing yuan-clearing functions in the EU, the addition of Deutsche Bank, with its deep roots in the local market, carries great significance.
"Banks have different client bases, and Deutsche Bank has many European companies as its customers. With the appointment, these market participants enjoy a far greater degree of facilitation and ease in tapping yuan use cases," said the professor.
Companies and financial institutions can also avoid risks of foreign exchange losses as they can now directly choose yuan-euro settlement and bypass the use of a third currency, the expert said, noting that China-EU trade and investment ties will be one step closer with a local clearing bank coming onboard.
Tian Lihui, dean of the Institute of Financial Development at Nankai University, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the latest development, some 12 years after the first-yuan clearing bank form a Chinese bank was set up in Frankfurt, marked a milestone as the yuan-clearing system in Europe has evolved from a model where "Chinese entities handle clearing for Europeans" to one where "Europeans handle yuan-clearing themselves."
The decision by one of Europe's largest domestic banks to integrate into the yuan-clearing system signals that China-Europe financial cooperation is moving beyond the shallow level of facilitating trade settlements into the more substantial level of jointly building financial infrastructure, Tian said.
For both China and Europe, this move represents a mutually beneficial institutional alignment, Tian said. "China gains greater depth in the offshore yuan market, while Europe secures an additional strategic option amid the contest of major currencies."
Brussels has recently been intensifying its use of restrictive trade and regulatory tools across sectors ranging from clean technologies to digital infrastructure and foreign subsidies, with many of these measures seen as directly affecting Chinese firms and adding strain to China-EU economic relations.
However, despite these moves, deepening industrial and supply chain integration and the strong complementarity of the two economies have continued to push bilateral trade to new highs. In the first seven months of 2026, China's total trade with the EU stood at 3.67 trillion yuan ($543.90 billion), up 9.5 percent year-on-year, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed on Friday.
As China-EU economic and trade ties continue to expand and deepen, demand for the yuan to be used in the EU market will rise proportionately, and more EU banks will likely be authorized to serve as yuan-clearing banks, Xi Junyang said.
Financial cooperation between the world's largest trading bloc and the largest trading nation has accelerated in recent months. In May, the PBC renewed and expanded a bilateral currency swap agreement with the National Bank of Serbia, increasing the value of the swap from 1.5 billion yuan to 5 billion yuan.
Almost 80 percent of the surveyed Chinese companies operating in the EU plan to expand their investment, even amid tightening policies in the EU and an increasingly complex business environment, according to a report published by the Chinese Chamber of Commerce to the EU and the China Economic Information Service in March. Fostering cooperation in emerging industries and cross-border finance have been highlighted by industry insiders as new growth drivers of China-EU trade and economic cooperation.
The yuan accounted for 3.1 percent of global payments in June, rising from 2.75 percent in the previous month, and ranking as the fifth most active currency for global payments by value, according to a report from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. In terms of trade finance, the yuan ranked second with a market share of 8 percent.
。不过，与净值回暖形成反差的是，发行端持续降温。

C | 《中国经营报》记者梳理发现，6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。业内人士认为，黄金在理财组合中的角色，正在从“博取收益的工具”转向“穿越周期的压舱石”。　　配置逻辑悄然生变　　黄金理财产品的收益曲线在过去半年经历了一轮陡峭的过山车。普益标准数据显示，2月黄金理财平均收益5.38%，彼时黄金理财最高收益达8.16%；随后黄金理财收益率可谓骤降，3—5月黄金理财平均收益分别为2.17%、2.56%、2.32%；6月、7月平均收益分别为1.65%、1.34%，截至8月21日，黄金理财平均收益上涨至1.91%，黄金理财最高收益达最高4.60%。　　与产品收益率回暖形成对照的是发行端的冷清。

D | 据Wind数据统计，2026年以来，共有34只黄金理财产品成立新发，但6月以来暂无黄金主题新产品成立。记者采访了解到，目前，理财公司普遍以债券票息打底、黄金敞口控制在低仓位，在多资产框架下以灵活节奏“逢低配置”。　　东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞告诉记者，由“博收益”到“压舱石”的定位转变，过去黄金在理财组合中更多被视为交易性增强工具，金价上涨时增配博取弹性，下跌时减持控制回撤，本质上是将黄金当作高波动的另类资产来轮动。但2026年以来，随着美国财政可持续性争议从预期走向数据验证、全球央行持续购金、去美元化趋势推进，黄金的战略配置属性被重新定价。黄金在主权信用风险和通胀尾部情景下具备对冲价值，这使其在“固收+”组合中承担的角色从“收益增强器”转向“风险分散器”。　　但他同时提醒道，“压舱石”不等于“稳定器”。“黄金自身波动率并不低，它压的是信用货币体系的舱，而非组合净值波动的舱。”瞿瑞指出，近1个月0.61%、近3个月0.75%的净值涨幅中，相当部分来自8月金价快速反弹的贡献，而非可持续的超额收益。风险定价层面，理财公司需要重新评估黄金仓位风险，即使5%至10%的黄金仓位，在金价单日波动2%至4%的环境下也可能主导组合的短期净值波动。　　金价后市多空交织　　对于金价后续走势，市场机构整体偏乐观。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发表机构观点认为，下半年涨势尚未结束。随着投资者重新评估美国货币政策及美元前景，金价打破近期的整理局面，再度走高。美国劳动力市场数据走软，也强化了市场预期美联储有望在通胀压力可控下维持利率不变。需求端因素亦为金价增添助力。黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）再度出现资金净流入，最初主要由中国买盘驱动，近期欧洲买盘也逐渐增强。与此同时，各国央行购金热度不减。世界黄金协会数据显示，6月全球央行净购金量达到51吨。

E | 7月中国央行增持黄金储备20吨，为2023年10月以来单月最大增幅。　　瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室同时列出了金价延续涨势的三项条件：第一，美元需继续走弱。我们的基准情景是，美联储将在9月按兵不动。不过，年内是否加息仍存在不确定性。第二，市场对美国实际利率的预期下降。实际利率是扣除通胀预期后的利率水平。作为非生息资产，实际利率越高，意味着持有黄金的机会成本就越高。尽管实际利率与金价并非在所有时期都保持稳定的相关性，但这仍是值得关注的重要指标。

F | 第三，黄金的投资需求还需进一步增强。ETF资金流入出现改善，但此势头能否持续，还有待观察。我们的分析框架显示，每季度投资买盘需达到约500吨，才能支持金价持续站稳于5000美元/盎司或以上。　　前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，去美元化是大势所趋，国际金价未来突破5000美元/盎司只是时间问题。他认为，本轮金价上涨的驱动因素主要有两方面：一是美国公布的非农就业、零售数据不及预期，通胀有所回落，美联储降息预期再度增强，9月会议大概率按兵不动，若四季度经济数据仍疲软，12月不排除降息可能；二是美国财政部加大回购国债力度，促使此前走高的美债收益率回落，对金价形成正面支撑。此外，全球央行购金步伐未停，为金价提供中长期底部支撑。据世界黄金协会7月30日报告，二季度全球央行及其他官方机构合计净增黄金储备289吨，同比增长62%。他建议，普通投资者在投资组合中配置10%至20%的黄金类资产，以对冲美元即其他纸币长期贬值的风险。

G | 　　对于理财公司“逢低配置”策略的可持续性，瞿瑞分析称，其核心取决于黄金定价中枢能否稳定抬升，而非择时能力本身。若财政信用弱化和央行购金构成中长期底部支撑，逢低配置就是在中枢抬升趋势中以较低成本建仓的有效策略，理财公司较长的负债端期限也提供了承受短期波动的空间。但这一策略面临两个风险：一是若美国通胀反弹迫使美联储重启加息或全球流动性阶段性收紧，金价可能显著回调，“逢低”之后还有更低；二是8月以来COMEX黄金期货价格快速拉升至4700美元/盎司附近，短期获利回吐压力加大，“逢低配置”的窗口正在收窄，高位追涨风险增大。　　（编辑：杨井鑫 审核：何莎莎 校对：翟军）责任编辑：朱赫楠。

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Published on:07:13:04