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CMA warns of record-strong super El Nino as climate impacts already hit China_我的网站
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5月13日，据媒体报道，世界人口正在走向关键拐点，即全球总和生育率（平均每个妇女一生的生育子女数量）将跌破维持人口平衡的水平，并且这可能已经发生了。
As sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central‑eastern Pacific are expected to peak around November to December, potentially leading to a record-strong super El Nino event, China has already experienced typical El Nino-related climate patterns this summer, the China Meteorological Administration announced on Tuesday. These include two major rain belts in eastern regions that caused widespread and intense storms with overlapping impacts, as well more frequent and stronger typhoons delivering prolonged wind and rain.
The central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Nino phase in May, and sea temperatures have since surged. The monitoring region’s sea surface temperature index 2.09 C in July, up 0.49 C from June. By mid-August, it had climbed to 2.64 C, signaling an unusually fast warming trend, the CMA said.
However, according to China’s national standard, a super El Nino event has not yet officially formed.
Given the current pronounced warming trend, a super El Nino event is highly likely to occur, with its intensity potentially exceeding that of the three strongest events on record in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 and making it the strongest one ever observed, according to the CMA.
Since the start of summer, China’s abnormal climate patterns have reflected the typical impacts of the El Nino. The western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough have shifted farther north and become stronger, while upper-level cold vortices have repeatedly moved into northern China, resulting in two major rain centers in the north and south, the CMA said.
A stronger summer monsoon has contributed to more frequent and intense typhoon activity, bringing heavier rainfall to southern China and the lower Yangtze River. In northern China, the northward-shifted subtropical high, frequent cold vortices and long-range moisture transport through the typhoons have contributed to repeated strong winds and heavy rain, according to the CMA.
According to CMA, as El Nino continues to develop rapidly and its impacts tend to lag behind its development, the National Climate Centre will strengthen monitoring and forecasting efforts, while closely tracking its future evolution and potential impacts on China’s climate.
Global Times
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As sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central‑eastern Pacific are expected to peak around November to December, potentially leading to a record-strong super El Nino event, China has already experienced typical El Nino-related climate patterns this summer, the China Meteorological Administration announced on Tuesday. These include two major rain belts in eastern regions that caused widespread and intense storms with overlapping impacts, as well more frequent and stronger typhoons delivering prolonged wind and rain.
The central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Nino phase in May, and sea temperatures have since surged. The monitoring region’s sea surface temperature index 2.09 C in July, up 0.49 C from June. By mid-August, it had climbed to 2.64 C, signaling an unusually fast warming trend, the CMA said.
However, according to China’s national standard, a super El Nino event has not yet officially formed.
Given the current pronounced warming trend, a super El Nino event is highly likely to occur, with its intensity potentially exceeding that of the three strongest events on record in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16 and making it the strongest one ever observed, according to the CMA.
Since the start of summer, China’s abnormal climate patterns have reflected the typical impacts of the El Nino. The western Pacific subtropical high and the monsoon trough have shifted farther north and become stronger, while upper-level cold vortices have repeatedly moved into northern China, resulting in two major rain centers in the north and south, the CMA said.
A stronger summer monsoon has contributed to more frequent and intense typhoon activity, bringing heavier rainfall to southern China and the lower Yangtze River. In northern China, the northward-shifted subtropical high, frequent cold vortices and long-range moisture transport through the typhoons have contributed to repeated strong winds and heavy rain, according to the CMA.
According to CMA, as El Nino continues to develop rapidly and its impacts tend to lag behind its development, the National Climate Centre will strengthen monitoring and forecasting efforts, while closely tracking its future evolution and potential impacts on China’s climate.
Global Times
。
根据联合国的统计数据，2017年的全球总和生育率为2.5，当时联合国认为它将在2020年代后期降至2.4。然而，到2021年，它已经下降到2.3，接近人口学家认为的全球替代水平2.2左右。
虽然联合国尚未公布2022年和2023年的预估生育率，但据报道，宾夕法尼亚大学专门研究人口的经济学教授Jesús Fernández-Villaverde，通过将联合国先前的预测与这两年大约覆盖全球一半人口的实际数据相结合，得出了他自己的估计。
C | 他表示，全球生育率去年已经下降到2.1到2.2之间，这将是人类历史上首次低于全球替代水平。
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Fernández-Villaverde也因此发出警告：“人口寒冬即将来临。”
报道称，在发达国家，生育率在1970年代就已经低于替代水平，并在新冠疫情期间进一步下降。发展中国家的生育率也在下降，印度去年超越中国成为人口最多的国家，但其生育率也已经低于替代水平。
此外，Fernández-Villaverde还发现，各国出生登记处报告的出生数通常比联合国预测的少10%到20%。
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例如，美国去年报告的的新生儿数量为359万，比联合国预测的少4%。在其他一些国家，出生人数的下降幅度更大：埃及去年报告的新生儿数量减少了17%；肯尼亚在2022年报告的新生儿数量减少了18%。
值得一提的是，2017年的时候，世界人口为76亿，当时联合国预测世界人口将继续增长到2100年，届时将达到112亿的顶峰。然而到了2022年，联合国下调了预测，并将其峰值提前到2080年代的104亿。这也可能已经过时了。华盛顿大学健康指标与评估研究所现在认为，世界人口将在2061年达到峰值约95亿后开始下降。
许多政府领导人都认为低生育是一个国家面临的最紧迫的问题。他们担心劳动力萎缩、经济增长放缓、养老金资金不足，以及孩子越来越少会造成社会活力下降。同时，人口减少也意味着全球影响力下降。
因此，各国政府出台了很多鼓励生育的政策，而这其中最突出的当属日本。
早在1990年代初期，日本生育率下降到1.5后，政府推出了一系列计划，包括育儿假和补贴托儿所费用。但生育率仍在下降。
2005年，日本任命了首位负责性别平等和出生率的大臣Kuniko Inoguchi。她宣称，生育的主要障碍是金钱：人们负担不起结婚或生孩子。随后，日本实行免费住院产妇护理制度，并推出儿童出生津贴。
F | 日本生育率因此从2005年的1.26上升到2015年的1.45。但随后又开始下降，到2022年又回到1.26。
今年，日本首相岸田文雄又推出了一项鼓励生育的计划，该计划每月向所有18岁以下的孩子发放津贴，并为有三名孩子的家庭提供免费大学教育以及全额带薪育儿假。
韩国总统尹锡悦5月9日表示，他打算成立一个新的部级单位来解决该国的低生育率问题。官方数据显示，尽管韩国已投入数十亿美元鼓励女性多生孩子、保持人口稳定，但去年韩国的出生人口还是降至历史最低水平。
匈牙利总理Viktor Orban推动了欧洲最雄心勃勃的促进生育计划之一。
G | 去年，他扩大了一项针对母亲的税收优惠政策，使30岁以下生育孩子的女性可以终身免缴个人所得税。这还不包括住房和儿童护理补贴以及慷慨的产假。
在美国，尽管州和联邦立法者已推动扩大儿童护理补贴和育儿假，但他们通常没有将提高出生率作为明确目标。不过，一些共和党人正在朝这个方向倾斜。去年，特朗普表示他支持发放“婴儿奖金”以支持美国出生率，并且共和党亚利桑那州参议院候选人Kari Lake最近也支持了这个想法。
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